Thursday, April 22, 2010

Regional Radar (April 22)

 

 

With some success, comes some hope: Here's what some college baseball writers think of Auburn's Chances of making it to the NCAA Baseball Tourney:

SITE PREDICTION Previously Change
Rivals (SEBaseball.com) 2 Seed
(Tallahassee)
2 Seed (Atlanta) Holding
College Baseball Blog 2 Seed (Tallahassee) 2 Seed
(Charlottesville)
Holding

For once both SEBaseball and TheCBB agree. Auburn is going to Tally. Ugh. They even agree on the other teams in the region as Florida State (1) Pitt (3) and Bethune Cookman (4) would make up the rest of the region. It would be a tough task to say the least, opening up against a hot Pitt team and facing a historically tough Bethune Cookman team. Yet Auburn could erase all doubts with a strong showing down the stretch.

   
TOURNAMENT RESUME   CHANGE
RECORD 25-13  
Boyd RPI 20 -
Nolan RPI 17 +2
Boyd ISR (Strength Ratings) 24 +3
Nolan NPI (Power Index) 30 -2
KEY WINS Bama, LSU, FAU  
KEY LOSSES SEMO (2/19), Missouri (2/27)  
BOYD'S Strength of Schedule 21  
Warren Nolan Strength of Schedule 13 +2
RECORD v RPI 1-50 7-10  
RECORD v RPI 51-100 7-1  
RECORD v RPI 101-200 6-2  
RECORD v RPI 201+ 5-0  
     

FINAL PREDICTION: I have to keep cheering for Florida Atlantic because right now the Owls seem to be Auburn's best non-conference RPI win. Other than Auburn remains in good shape. One interesting note from BoydsWorld and his RPI needs report:

This report lists the record each team would need for the rest of their schedule to finish higher than the team currently in the shown key RPI positions, those that correspond to the various seeding or at large thresholds, assuming that all other teams maintain their current winning percentage. It's highly speculative, since those RPI levels will move up or down, and the committee is highly unlikely to just take the top 8 in RPI for the national seeds, for example, but it can be useful as a rough guide. The report is updated daily around 8:30 AM CDT.

According to Boyd (and again, like he says he's just spitballing here and everything is speculative) but if Auburn goes 18-0 down the stretch (which I'm going to deem "unlikely") then we'd slide into the Top 8 RPI. What IS doable is sliding into the Top 16 RPI (aka the hosting seeds)  by going 13-5 down the stretch.

Auburn has 18 games left. Let's play the hypothetical: Say Auburn wins its three remaining midweek games (3-0), Then sweeps Mississippi State and Tennessee (9-0), and takes the series from Kentucky (11-1). Then Auburn could still drop the series to Mississippi (12-3) and Arkansas (13-5) and still hit the mark. Again, there are a ton of other factors in play here but it's definitely a doable scenario.

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