Thursday, May 6, 2010

Regional Radar (May 6)

With some success, comes some hope: Here's what some college baseball writers think of Auburn's Chances of making it to the NCAA Baseball Tourney:

SITE PREDICTION Previously Change
Rivals (SEBaseball.com) 2 Seed
(
Atlanta)
2 Seed
(Tallahassee)
Closer to Home
College Baseball Blog 2 Seed
(
Atlanta)
2 Seed (Tallahassee) Closer to Home

Auburn's reward for taking 2 of 3 from Arkansas? A winnable regional closer to home. SEBaseball has Georgia Tech, Charlotte, and the College of Charleston (Pawlawski's old squad). The CBB has Georgia Tech, Liberty, and James Madison. Most every prediction I've seen this week has 4 SEC Regional Hosts: Oxford (Ole Miss), Fayetteville (Arkansas), Columbia (South Carolina), and Gainesville (Florida). You would have to assume that USC and UF are almost certainly going to be National Seeds (meaning Super Regional hosts) and personally, I'd think Arkansas is a lock to host a regional. The Wild Card here is Ole Miss. The Rebels have snuck in lately (thanks to their back to back series wins) but the Hogs and Rebels could cancel each other out and Auburn could slip in. Safely assume 4 SEC teams will be Regional Hosts.

   
TOURNAMENT RESUME   CHANGE
RECORD 30-15  
Boyd RPI 14 +5
Nolan RPI 14 +1
Boyd ISR (Strength Ratings) 21 +5
Nolan NPI (Power Index) 25 +4
KEY WINS Bama, LSU, FAU, UK, Arkansas  
KEY LOSSES SEMO (2/19), Missouri (2/27)  
Warren Nolan Strength of Schedule 7 +4
RECORD v RPI 1-50 11-12  
RECORD v RPI 51-100 5-2  
RECORD v RPI 101-200 9-1  
RECORD v RPI 201+ 5-0  
     

FINAL PREDICTION: The biggest jumps are from Boyd, which is good as he tends to be the closest to what the NCAA actually uses. Even better is that the RPI needs report is slowly sliding into Auburn's favor, this week hypothesizing that Auburn would need just a 5-6 record to climb in to the TOP 8 of the RPI. Auburn has a 11 games left. 6 of those are against struggling teams. 2 are non cons, with South Alabama probably giving a big RPI boost. That leaves the Oxford showdown as a huge season ending series for Auburn as both an SEC West Crown and Regional Host birth could both be on the line. I mean, honestly, it's not completely out of the realm of possibility that going into the final weekend, Auburn could be riding an 8 game winning streak. It will all start with Mississippi State this weekend.

 

As for Auburn's non conference opponents and how that are hurting or helping our RPI:

Florida Atlantic (32)

Troy (62)

Boston College (52)

Missouri (89)

SEMO (137)

Samford (72)

A key for Auburn would be for Samford, Troy, and BC to all come up strong and push that RPI up. However, at this point, Auburn should be completely focused on taking care of its remaining SEC schedule and not RPI watching.

2 comments:

Jonesy May 6, 2010 at 11:22 AM  

Rivals still has Auburn in Tallahassee, but if we keep winning, that's going to change.

kevin0ives May 6, 2010 at 12:22 PM  

There are two (maybe more) Rivals predictions: The Main Rivals Site (Kendall Rogers) and SEBaseball. I like SEBaseball's because it comes out earlier and the writer has more of a focus/knowledge of Southeastern Baseball.

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