Tuesday, April 3, 2012

STAT of the Union Week 7: The Hold Steady

 

 

 






Sometimes, change isn’t needed as long as it can get the job done. Sometimes, all you really need to do is Hold Steady. Look at Auburn this past week: the record was even (2-2), the overall ERA and Team BA had minor/negligible changes. Everything sort of plateaud. Is that good? Well, obviously if Auburn had gone 4-0 instead of 2-2 then everything would be coming up roses. Still, going 2-2 kept Auburn in the hunt in the SEC and actually puts Auburn in good position for the next 3 weekends. Before we take a look at those weekends, let’s take a quick peak  



There’s Auburn, swimming towards the top in hitting, towards the middle in pitching, and towards the bottom in fielding. Categorically, Auburn didn’t make strides positively or negatively in either category. We just held serve. Is that good enough?

For now, it is. That’s really all you can ask. I look at the Auburn baseball schedule about 3 times a week and one day keeps looming. April 19th. Once that day has come Auburn will have played 6 opponents. Only one of them currently with a winning record and all six having a combine 66-101 Record (49-90 if you don’t include Samford). Alabama, Vanderbilt, Alabama A&M, Jacksonville State, Troy, Samford. Those are the teams that realistically could make of break Auburn’s season. Not South Carolina or Florida or Arkansas. These 6 teams in this big stretch of games. 




Why? Just like last year it’s all about the overall record. Auburn is already in good position to make the SEC Tournament this year, especially with the 10 team bump. What could keep Auburn out of the postseason is not having above a .500 record. The RPI is there, the schedule is there, all that’s missing could be the win. Auburn has played 28 games. We have 27 more. The Tigers currently sit at 17-11 overall. Mathematically, you need to have to have 30 wins to almost guarantee finishing above .500. Auburn is more than halfway there. That’s why the series against Alabama and Vanderbilt are so critical. You have to at least win these series and completely the midweek sweep. That puts you at 8-2 heading in to the South Carolina series. We’ll give one mulligan maybe and say 7-3. That puts Auburn’s record at 24-14.




That’s still 6 wins away from 30. However, the good news would be they would have 17 games to do it. It might still be cutting it close. We’ll just chalk that up to a later bridge.



For now, it starts with Jacksonville State. If, and this is a big IF, in my opinion, Auburn can go 10-0 during this stretch? Putting Auburn at 27-11? Then I will be able to breath deep, relax, and maybe, just maybe, think about HOSTING a regional instead of just making one. It all starts tonight. Jacksonville State. Auburn has to win. Simple as that. War Eagle 

0 comments:

  © Free Blogger Templates Spain by Ourblogtemplates.com 2008

Back to TOP